MLBԤ2022ջ֣Ԥ⣬ÿŶӵ

MLBԤ2022Ԥ⣬ÿŶӵ
2022MLBˡֻмʱֱĻգϣŶжܸߣ⽫Ӯһ꣬һ162

»ķչǶԽΡûж¸Ҷ2021ӮǵĵĸھڣµһУǽһĿ꣬Ϊڣ֧ӵĿDZظھǣ˭רԱĽ˭

ڽҿģͣͶӰ2022 MLBݽԤ⡣ģͨʹùȥͶ2022ı֡ȻЩԱͳ뵱ǰŶӺϲÿŶӵݣֻţıΡ

Al East | Al Central | Al West

NL| NL Central | NL West

Ȼÿģ20,000Σÿж԰ء↑ʼģ͸ݳĽģ⼾Ծ˭ӮÿģĽһԴܽÿŶӵԤ20,000ģеƽʤʧ

ǡšģͶ2022 MLBչѡԤ⡣

Vladimir-Guerrero-Jr-Bo-Bichette-09292019-Getty-FTR

91-71
ߣ87-75
ࣨ86-76
86-76
ݺ70-92
Al EastǰõIJţҪģͲ֪һ㡣ȥ꣬òڼ֧ӣǰķ – Ԥ꽫طͬһλáǣģҡڣ

ⲿŵģؽΪӮߺͺӵʤϣ֧Ӷ뼾׶С׶ޣVladimir Guerrero Jr.أBo Bichette̩˹ϵ˹Teoscar Hernandezõݣʹܻõļ¼֮һ˹׶Marcus SemienѾԱУ׶ཫءMatt Chapman˵DZأBichetteߵǺʧȥޱȡףRobbie RayʷġģSteven Matz˺ֻ뿭ġ˹Kevin Gausman棨Yusei KikuchiԼ˹Jose BerriosˡŵǣAlek ManoahǿͶԱ

ࣺءMatt Chapman׸ʺ

ǸŶӲϱָͺֳɫŶӡģAL EastĵӮøòŵˣû˻еȡ Wander FrancoShane BazShane McClanahanھֲĵڶеŶӵҪɫRandy ArozarenaBrandon LoweٴΣա

2021걼ALCSʹһЩ˸еȣʿϣ2022ٴβμӼBichetteGuerrero Jr.лⶼ쳶¸˹Rafael DeversҲڳһΣյڣҲTrevorĹ£ȻӦϲɫĹֻǰNathan EovaldiChris SaleTanner HouckṩһЩǿALеõƥ䡣

ӵķ˿ŦԼ޷ԱлκҪƸеʧⲢֹģڲʿ˹ըĻϿǡ壨Joey GalloӦڲת½иƣ׷٣塤˹̹٣Giancarlo StantonʲɭJosh Donaldson˶Ϊ˶õṩҪǣģͶܸߣGerrit ColeJameson TaillonJordan MontgomeryHealthy Luis Severino2022쵼˸Ŷӡ

ԤǽݺӶԼľ˼𾪰һ꣬оʱѾԽԽˡ³Adley Rutschman͸ɭ޵˹Grayson RodriguezᲢңԶˡ˹Cedric MullinsסᣨTrey Mancini𰲡âؿ˹Ryan MountcastleѾ֤ǿڴе顣һЩGunnar HendersonDL Hallļһۿ֧ӿܻȤ

Team
ʤ

С㼾
ټ
Blue Jays
42.9
41.1
16.0
31.2
Rays
22.2
47.6
30.2
16.3
Red Sox
18.2
45.7
36.1
13.4
Yankees
16.5
43.3
40.2
12.2
Orioles
0.1%
1.8
98.1
0.1%

Luis Robert

ࣨ94-68
ϻ81-81
ʼҶӣ81-81
˫̥77-85
໤ˣ67-95
ģͶAl CentralĿ봫ͳǻ۵ԤͬѡܵIJſ϶ȷģǼʷЩҡǣһЩԭΪʲôˡ

ӻ߿ʼкܶ˻ɰӦӮøòŵ·˹޲أķɭYoan MoncadaJose Abreu֡ʹ˿˹޵ǣCarlos RodonתȻDZõı֮һ¬˹УLucas Giolito˹ֶLance Lynn͵ףDylanǰֹͣ˱˶棨Michael Kopechķ˹Liam Hendriksţĺˣǿǽ

ϻӵλþڴ˼ıԵȥ꣬ȣCasey MizeءMatt Manningˡ˹ͶTarik Skubal˴˵ζֳϣ2022ԶΪ2021ȱṩ˽ϻӻڹάȣJavier BaezͰ»ࡤ޵˹Eduardo RodriguezǩһԶԱΪṩһЩȷвԷǵԤⲢΪӰܣô2022걻͹Ŷӡ

ϻһҳԱҲBobby Witt Jr.MJ MelendezNick PrattoMLB׼˲ţԤڱijʱ򶼽ˣӵѾSalvador PerezNicky LopezĽкWhit Merrifield³ϣAndrew Benintendi2021ֳһЩDZʱ򣬰ﱴСɵAdalberto MondesiȻܱըֻʺ󣬵Zack GreinkeǩԼBrady SingerBrad KellerCarlos HernandezһУӦܹṩŶʵľ档

ӱķھƽѣ˫̥2021ĵײײǰпһ֧ռλӺ𾪡ģͶ2022в̫ܿ˹ǣCarlos CorreaɣᡤףSonny GrayĽ׽ŶӵԱкܶʺţڱ˹Berriosڽ֮ȥ꣬ɭڽססͿ˹٣Byron Buxtonôǰ˻֮һȻһ

໤˸оòľϲܿȥ˼2012AL CentralеıҲģ2022ȱεԭ򣿷ں˹Jose Ramirez͸׶Ү˹Franmil Reyesǿ֮½ˣûжֵ֧֡ټӲﰣ˹Gabriel AriasܻΪṩתȻShane Bieber㣬쵼һԱԱɫCal QuantrillͻԼTriston McKenzieZach PlesacAaron CivaleʵѡȣڴķչȻоһ㡣

Team
ʤ

С㼾
ټ
White Sox
84.3
10.1
5.7%
64.7
Tigers
7.0%
24.7
68.3
3.7
Royals
6.0%
22.2
71.8
2.8
Twins
2.7
12.0
85.3
1.1
Guardians
0.0%
0.5
99.5
0

Jose Altuve (left) and Alex Bregman (right)

̫ˣ91-71
ʹ80-82
80-82
ˮ֣72-90
ᄊ64-98
2021Al West˺ܶ飬ģԤ

˽òڴ̫ߣκˣʹģأ϶ῼǶǽбڹȥļУǴΡ˹ָGeorge Springer˹͡ά£Justin Verlander˵һʧȥ˹ؼ֣ڣǿǣCorreaǣȻһ֧صŶӡͼJose AltuveϮΧΧԱᡣˣKyle TuckerڽΪ쵼֮һԼ˹Ү˹Yordan Alvarez˹׸Alex BregmanôӦǵ÷ߵķ֮һ Framber ValdezLuis GarciaֱֻۣVerlanderԴסԼTommy JohnϣصӮõķʽ

ÿ˶ֻڵȴʹԼDZˡأMike TroutһõĻ֣ҲShohei OhtaniʷвŻԱ.500¡⾭ǽģͶʹĹעԤOhtaniʱﶼûмڣÿڶ120һ꣬ɼܻǰ;ŻJo AdellReid DetmersBrandon MarshԤƽ2022Ϊ͡

AL West Crownܿͻڵ¿˹ݾһЩǰڵĻ⣬ʱǽҪķɽǩԼCorey Seager˹׶Marcus SemienõгϡǻǩǶףJon GrayǶףJon Grayڿ˹򳡣Coors FieldͶ򣬿ܻͻжȹһͻģΪǩԼʹÿ˹ݳΪȫľߣΪdzȷҪһ

ࣺRedsAбMLB˿أ³˹

ˮ2021ĸоܺãʱ޴ڣ90ʤ˼꣬û˻˯ˮϡͼͨĽ¿ˣJesse WinkerȽ¡˹Eugenio SuarezǿĽ¡ˣJarred Kelenic¡޵˹Julio RodriguezĺģǩͳھޱȡףRobbie RayģͶͼĵ䲻ȷͶȳ׺ɡ˹Marco GonzalesԼֲѵڳգʣͼδǹġ

ᄊӵ˵һ˾ɥڣǿǵӣChapman¸ߣOlsonԼܳФΣSean ManaeaͿ˹أChris Bassittֱ׵˹Padresʹ󶼻ᣨMetsŶп԰Ӯñӣ˹Frankie Montasֻǰ棬ǰ˹ٰCristianˣCristian PaacheɡŵRamon Laureanoһⳡ⽫Żþһװذ¿ӵ

Team
ʤ

С㼾
ټ
Astros
77.6
10.7%
11.7
43.8
Angels
10.7%
18.6
70.7
3.7
Rangers
10.5
18.5
71.0
3.7
Mariners
1.1
3.0
95.9
0.2%
Athletics
0.0%
0.1%
99.9
0.0%

jacob-degrom-050521-ftr-getty.jpg

¸ң92-70
󶼻ᣨ87-75
ѳˣ86-76
㣨80-82
73-89
ͳĻʤ߳ΪӮԼIJŵŦԼͷѳƺͨǿߡŸ¸ķJacob DegromǶԴ󶼻ӮøòŵĻشӼл󽡿ŦԼNLõ֮һ

Ƕ¸ߵԤЩǿӮNL EastڸòŵڵǺ׿ǻЩԤ⡣Сɵ¡ɣRonald Acuna Jr.ʧȥ˳ڵӪ̶װFreddie FreemanʱȡAMatt OlsonӦܹǰMVPĹƥ䡣ˡ޿Mike SorokaĻعMax FriedIan AndersonCharlie MortonHuascar YNOAֻܻáţѾȥõţ֮һſղɭKenley Jansenʷ˹Will Smith̩աпˣTyler MatzekAJ MinterǩԼõ˽

2021Ǹе󶼻ӽòܡܿıˣʧ77-85Ⲣζκ˶ӦŦԼ˯Max ScherzerǩԼBassittչMets1-2-3ȭDeGromScherzerBassittڵTaijuan WalkerCarlos Carrasco֮ǰStarling MarteMark CanhaӵһУѾڳFrancisco LindorJeff McNeilPete AlonsoⳡBrandon NimmoһˡDHNLӦڶˡʷ˹Dominic SmithޱѷŵRobinson CanoԸߵٶ¡ȣEdwin Diaz2021ӽӽٴγΪ2022õľȼ֮һ

ѳ˶DZʱļ֧֮һֱڿҰʤ¼ȡλáڣǻᾡȷβͨѾڲ˹꣨Bryce HarperMVPˡ˹ŵ˹Nick CastellanosƲӿʩ߲Kyle SchwarberĶ̬𡣽JT RealmutoRhys HoskinsJean Seguraһһһݣܹ㹻˺ˡգZack WheelerסŵAaron NolaתȻռλ – ţ – ͨ¡£Brad HandҮ³˹ˣJeurys FamiliaͿڱCorey KnebelǩԼõ˸ơ

MLBڳɼӣ󶼻ӵijɼܸߣ

ӵľٶܲ󶼻ӻѳɽҪ˯ڡAvisail GarciaJorge SolerڽⳡⳡһЩػŶӻڵڶĶٴοһͻǾʿķJazz Chisholmģϲת׸޽˹Trevor RogersӮ㣬ɣϡSandy AlcantaraޡȣPablo Lopezֱ3.20ʱʱҮա¬ࣨJesus LuzardoܵĴŮв񣬵ڴѵչʾĵ綯ܺ͸DZܿһܻӭͻѡ

ڹ˵꽫еϡȻкУJuan Soto̩¡ķ˹Ted WilliamsıȽϣŶеδ֪ǣĴ󲿷ݶδ֤ʵءķCarter KieboomѾһʱˣһǰ˷أһֵĻᡣά˶ࡤ޲˹Victor RoblesȻ˸ž޴DZδʹݾɵ Trea Turner/ScherzeróеǰJosiah GrayֻKeibert RuizӦóΪճ֡ƷΪһԹӵ춨

Team
ʤ

С㼾
ټ
Braves
53.7
31.1
15.1
40.9
Mets
22.4
38.5
39.2
15.7
Phillies
18.5
38.5
43.0
12.3
Marlins
4.8
18.5
76.7
2.8
Nationals
0.6
2.7
96.7
0.2%

Yadier Molina

̣90-72
ʦ83-79
Сܣ75-87
ɫ72-90
66-96
ԴСܶ20162017״ظNL CentralûظΪھģԤơƳ2022»ơơ

ȡ֮ǣģϲӮNLĻᡣ֧ڱʱȡ17ʤı֧ʱ˺ѳ˶Ӻ˹Բ׽ڶͨDZ뼾̩աTyler O’Neillɭ͵£Harrison Bader͵סɭDylan CarlsonѸⳡΪõķزӣǶڽ˸ơޡʩأPaul GoldschmidtŵɶࣨNolan ArenadoҰǿм䴮סTommy EdmanӦݵĶṩģĺϲʷġģSteven MatzǵأAdam Wainwrightͽܿˡ٣Jack Flahertyֻǿܻ粿˶һЩʱ䡣

ȥ꣬ûбʦͶָáƶ˹Corbin Burnes2.43 ERAӮCy YoungBrandon Woodruff2.56Freddy Peralta2.813.00 ERAֲˡͶEric LauerͰﰲ˹Adrian HouserټһתְҵˣMLBõİʲ£Josh Hader͵ġķ˹Devin Williamsһţǰģ֮ϲ̵ֻܶԭȱʦݵΣķ˹Willy Adamesظ֣˹ٰҮϣChristian YelichԷص2019ˮƽĵطôֻ֧ܶMilwaukeeľ޴ͶְԱ

Сܶڽؽ/¼أԳԱŶӾͬʱٴνĺġڹȥУձ֮һľǩSeiya SuzukiһܴIJ䣬Ϊܻܿݵм䡣ˡӶNick MadrigalơɣNico Hoernerһǰ;гϣӦδҪɲ֡ˡΤ˹أPatrick Wisdom͸ˡʩµ¶Frank Schwindel2021Իʵ״༾ڣգIan Happɭ˹Willson Contrerasһ˹˹Marcus Stroman˹Kyle HendricksΤ¡Wade MileyĶֻԲ

ࣺSeiya SuzukiӮCubs’s Clubhouseһӡ󽫴

ڸκ˵һڡûǩ򣬲ǩסķTommy PhamŵŵDonovan Solano֡ĪColin MoranˡŵMike Minor֮ǰнˮתнӪżWinkerSuarezŶDZԽԤ⡣ɭӡȣJonathan India̩ա˹ٷɭTyler StephensonҫƣˡNick Senzel԰ԼǰƷѡʹڻɫ֮·˹˹ԣLuis Castillo̩աTyler Mahleֻ̩ագTyler Mahle쵼ֻ⽫Դ۵˸֣Hunter GreeneͿרˡ壨Nick LodoloΪɫУJoey VottoDzŻ38꾺ѡģԤƻһЩعʧ

ȫؽģʽϵͳеŻʼˡŵȣBryan Reynolds2021ȫǵͷǸöӵ㣬Ke’Bryan HayesпܳΪӵһס֮󣬺˹ܿͻͨʵλOneil Cruzڳࡣƥȱڵȴ桤գMitch KellerͻƷ – 괺죬Ƴ; – תʼԲ˹ѷBryse Wilson˹Roansy Contrerası֯

Team
ʤ

С㼾
ټ
Cardinals
72.0
11.7
16.3
30.6
Brewers
23.5
20.7
55.7
6.5
Cubs
3.1
4.1
92.7
0.3%
Reds
1.2
1.7
97.1
0.0%
Pirates
0.1%
0.1%
99.8
0.0%

Freddie Freeman

ӣ98-64
ˣ90-72
˹85-77
ɽ75-87
βߣ71-91
NL West2021걻װŵװ˶԰ѳɼ͵ڰӵеڶõļ¼2022꣬ŵ˹PadresΪевһ˷ܡ

˶ӵͻƼڻ˵ӵͳελģϣɼ2022ھǩ¸׵ϡFreddie Freeman԰SeagerʧʱøǣʹSeagerʧˣɣTurnerҲӵڶתƵλ֣ġտ˹Gavin LuxͿ˹̩գChris TaylorҲռݵڶݡŶյMax Muncyκεط򣬼˹͡ɣJustin Turner36ʱûʾ˥ϵļ»ģMookie Betts2021еȻǰõIJ֮һɼʺֻģֿˡգWalker Buehler뿪Ϊʵơ١ФClayton KershawһֱŬֽһֱλţʧȥղɭJansen˿׸񡤽׶Craig Kimbrel벼׿ˡգBlake TreinenͲ³˹ޣBrusdar GraterolһС

ࣺƵϡָCody BellingerٴӺܺã޹ؽҪ

˶2021ȡóɹĹؼdzɫֻ2022ٴεõһ⡣??ʹ˹GausmanԱ̣ɽɽȻΤLogan Webb߽һļذᡤ˹ᣨAnthony Desclafani˹£Alex WoodǻͨǩRodonAlex CobbMatthew Boydǩ´ɽֻʹֻøǿ󡣰˹ءBuster PoseyݽӭӺأJoey Bartʱеؼ – ǡ͸£ǡأˡ˹ضķ˹ – 30ϣȻǵ䲢ûᣬǵ2021϶ûн⽫ʹǰõ֮һ

ʿ2020д2020н뼾ʱϣ2021ȡһΪߡ෴Ǵ˼УǵٴκܸߡСѶ϶ࡤ˹Fernando Tatis Jr.תˡģMike ClevingerĹóǣManaeaó׻ָеõǽJoe MusgroveYu DarvishBlake Snellڶ˹TatisȵĵǣģͶʥǸĿãǺ׿һֱڵȴꡣ

ÿ˶Ϊɽܻᳯؽǰʱdzȥǩ¿˹أKris Bryantÿ˶ڿƶ˹ʣCJ Cronڿݵĵһпڿ˹Coors Fieldϡп׵޽˹Brendan Rodgers𰲡飨Ryan McMahonǿԳΪϵеǰ;Ĵ˿ɫʧһֱֻۣڿȡ˳ɹ¹˹Ͱ¡Antonio Senzatelaϸ֤ѾŪˡɽμ2022꼾ıǹۿݿܺȤ

βͶĦ2021սݺһǿʼӵδ Alek ThomasӦ2022ijʱ״࣬ԼKetel MarteDaulton VarshoCarson KellyɣҲģDHڽˣΪSlugger Seth BeerṩһʼһزμݵķʽˡףZac Gallen¬ˡΤLuke WeaverijʱɣݵֻϽתǾĿǰԣھḻֿMerrill KellyѷɣMadison Bumgarner

Team
ʤ

С㼾
ټ
Dodgers
74.7 %%
22.9
2.5
69.2
Giants
20.2
59.9
19.9
17.1
Padres
4.9
42.3
52.3
4.2
Rockies
0.2%
4.8
95.0
0.1%
Diamondbacks
0.1%
1.6%
98.3
0.1%

һټ̫࣬
ʣµļӣӣߣӣ
ALͼƬܲ˾ȡӺ̫˱ѡУκӶܽǰǰAL EastҲģпܽ뼾ӡһIJ֮һаݵİALһλ

Ӯļʽο2022꼾ͼƬĹ¡г5֧Al EastWhite SoxAstrosλ쵼ˡ׶16.9ĹھӮùھӺͰ˹˹Astrosֱ15.213.9ٶС롣

Team
Win pennant
Blue Jays
16.9
White Sox
15.2
Astros
13.9
Rays
13.0
Red Sox
12.3
Yankees
10.8
Tigers
4.5
Rangers
3.8
Royals
3.7
Angels
3.2%
Twins
2.1
Mariners
0.3%
Orioles
0.2%
Guardians
0.0%
Athletics
0.0%

һټ棬¸
ʣµļӣ̣ˣ󶼻ӣѳ
ڹ˺пDZڵģխԤNL East֧ӽ뼾󶼻ӺͷѳӮͨ˹ھھĽʿ

But the top two teams in the NL are the same as last year’s: the Dodgers and Giants. The model likes the Dodgers to win the pennant and finish with the best record in baseball, while the Giants are the second-most likely team to win the pennant, barely edging out the Braves, who are likely to earn the second bye by virtue of winning their division with the second-best record among division winners.

Team
Win pennant
Dodgers
17.4%
Giants
14.2%
Braves
14.1%
Mets
12.9%
Cardinals
11.9%
Phillies
10.7%
Padres
7.4%
Brewers
6.1%
Marlins
3.2%
Rockies
0.7%
Cubs
0.7%
Nationals
0.3%
Reds
0.2%
Diamondbacks
0.2%
Pirates
0.0%

Everyone wants to know who will win the World Series, and according to the model, the answer is Dodgers are the most likely champion. They are picked as a slight favorite to win the Commissioner’s Trophy, just edging out the Blue Jays.

The model is also high on the pitching of the Giants, giving San Francisco a major edge going into the postseason even as a wild-card team.

Despite believing that the Astros are more likely to win the pennant, it sees the Rays as a slightly more likely team to win the World Series. The model indicates that in a World Series against the NL, which is loaded with teams that boast top-line pitching staffs, Tampa Bay’s staff is more likely to hold up in a series.

Team
Win World Series
Dodgers
9.3%
Blue Jays
8.7%
Giants
8.4%
White Sox
7.7%
Rays
7.1%
Astros
7.0%
Braves
6.8%
Mets
6.4%
Cardinals
6.0%
Red Sox
5.7%
Yankees
5.2%
Phillies
4.6%
Padres
3.5%
Brewers
3.5%
Tigers
1.9%
Marlins
1.6%
Angels
1.6%
Rangers
1.4%
Royals
1.4%
Twins
0.8%
Rockies
0.3%
Cubs
0.2%
Mariners
0.2%
Nationals
0.2%
Reds
0.1%
Diamondbacks
0.1%
Guardians
0.0%
Orioles
0.0%
Athletics
0.0%
Pirates
0.0%